Labour leads Tories despite criticism of Ed Miliband

Labour is ahead of the Conservative party, according to the latest polling for the Financial Times.

Populus has carried out two October opinion polls – each of 2,000 people – which show an average of 37 per cent of voters backing Labour, ahead of the Conservative party on 33 per cent. The research consultancy also published the results of its September polls, which gave Labour a 37-33 lead, one point wider than August’s 37-34.

The past few weeks have been eventful – Scotland rejected independence, Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, delivered a poorly received conference speech, two Tory MPs defected to Ukip and David Cameron promised tax cuts if re-elected.

The prime minister used his party conference to promise a rise in the level at which people start paying income tax and the level at which they begin paying the 40 per cent rate.

The Labour leader promised a higher minimum wage, paid for by a tax on properties worth more than £2m, while Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, said there would be a two-year benefits freeze.

Populus found that Mr Cameron’s announcements were received much better by his core voters than were those of Mr Miliband.

Tory voters said they found the prime minister’s pledges more believable, in tune and exciting than Labour voters found Mr Miliband’s. Self-identified swing voters were more sceptical, seeing both plans as similarly achievable and desirable.

Rick Nye, managing director of Populus, said the detail of their plans had not been noticed by the majority of voters. He said: “Not many people knew the party conferences were going on. And those who did were sceptical of the promises from all the party leaders.”

The results will add to a sense of uncertainty about how well each party is doing. ASurvation poll for the Mail on Sunday newspaper showed Labour and the Tories tied on 31 points, while research by Opinium for The Observer put Labour 7 points ahead on 35 per cent.

Mr Nye said of the differing findings: “Politics on the margins is quite volatile. People are shifting around, saying they don’t back any parties, but then changing their mind. There is a lot of churn underneath the surface.”

That volatility is part of the reason for the unexpectedly strong showing of the UK Independence party in the Heywood and Middleton by-election, where the party lost to Labour by just 617 votes.

That result has triggered speculation about the future of the Labour leader, who had already faced criticism for forgetting to mention the deficit in his conference speech.

Mr Miliband attempted to draw a line under such speculation on Sunday and promised he would take a tougher stance on immigration. Writing in The Observer, newspaper he said: “I recognise Ukip is also tapping into a seam of discontent and despair that Labour cannot – and will not – ignore.”

He is expected to make announcements on the party’s immigration policy in the coming weeks, but aides said they would focus on ideas Mr Miliband had already discussed, including encouraging English language learning, making migrants do more to earn benefits, and stronger action against employers who exploit migrant labour and drive down wages.