Who will win Oscars in 2015? And who should?

As we await the 2015 Oscars, Peter Bradshaw considers the categories and suggests entries that should win but probably won’t, those that should be in the running but aren’t – and predicts the winners

 Under The Skin, which should have been a contender for best picture.

Will win: Boyhood.

Should win: Boyhood.

Shoulda been a contender: Under the Skin.

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 Ellar Coltrane, aged six, in Boyhood. Photograph: AP

Best director 

Will win: Alejandro González Iñárritu.

Should win: Richard Linklater.

Shoulda been a contender: Jim Jarmusch for Only Lovers Left Alive.

Best actor

Will win: Eddie Redmayne.

Should win: Eddie Redmayne.

Shoulda been a contender: David Oyelowo.

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 David Oyelowo plays Dr Martin Luther King in Selma. Photograph: a/Atsushi Nishijima

Best actress 

Will win: Julianne Moore.

Should win: Marion Cotillard.

Shoulda been a contender: Hilary Swank, for The Homesman.

Best supporting actor 

Will win: JK Simmons.

Should win: Mark Ruffalo.

Shoulda been a contender: Riz Ahmed, for Nightcrawler.

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 Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher. Photograph: Allstar/Sony Pictures Classics

Best supporting actress

Will win: Patricia Arquette.

Should win: Patricia Arquette.

Shoulda been a contender: Mia Wasikowska, for Maps to the Stars.